This weekend we have the biggest competition we’ve ever observed for DraftKings MMA. We have a $10 entrance contest with $300,000 in total prizes, and $100,000 of that to 1st place. I never believed we would see a 6-figure 1st place trophy for MMA but I was wrong and I can’t wait to pursue it. Conor McGregor vs Khabib Nurmagomedov will be the biggest fight in UFC history and DraftKings just made it even bigger for us DFS players. We are down to 12-fights so we could see a number of ties for this 1st place prize, therefore try to be different with your lineups someplace, or leave salary on the dining table to be different in this manner. With that said, here are a few plays I like this weekend Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Vicente Luque ($9,400)
Luque is the”safest” play on the card by a good margin at his -900 gaming lineup. I love plugging in these high likelihood guys in cash so I can lock a triumph in there and worry about locating 3 other wins from my 5 additional spots. We generally only need 4 wins in money games to win against the cash line, so that is what I shoot for in these 50/50 or double up games. Luque has been very impressive in his UFC run and he’s beat some pretty big names. On paper, this is only one of the easiest matches yet. He also has big time upside with his completing possible. He has an ITD line of -270, therefore I believe we can have 100+ points in this win. He is a good play in most formats, however he is going to be chalky in championships, so that is why he is my cash play of the week instead.
GPP drama of the week — Alexander Volkov ($8,700)
Heavyweights are always good to target in GPPs since it just takes 1 shot with a lot of those men. I believe that this is a great matchup for Volkov and he is priced at $8.7k this week. If he can get a 1st round KO at the price, he’ll probably be on the winning LU. Same is true for Lewis, so he’s a solid GPP play too. However, my choice to win is going to be Volkov and that I like his price. I think a few guys priced over him this week will be much higher owned, therefore we could get a heavyweight favorite at lesser possession here. Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is presently lined at -190, therefore this is a good GPP struggle to target over all. If you enjoy the Dark Beast to get the W, then he’s a good fighter to throw in your GPP LUs.
Underdog play of the week — Tony Martin ($7,400)
Here is the best odds value on the card. Currently, Laflare is lined at -135 and Tony Martin is lined at +115. However, on DraftKings Laflare is priced $1,400 higher than Martin. I love searching online worth like that and that alone puts Martin in play in all formats. Martin also has got the better odds to finish this battle ITD, so that is another and with him. I like the flooring for Martin in money games also since Laflare isn’t very likely to finish if he wins. So, at $7.4k, we could afford a loss from Martin and take the things he could rack up in 15-minutes.
Fade of this week — Sergio Pettis ($8,600)
Sergio Pettis could get the win . But he is going to have to acquire a finish to repay his $8.6k price . Sergio won’t be going for any takedowns in this battle, and he does not strike a high enough rate for him to get 10x of the $8.6k. Sergio are the better fighter on the feet, but when he does not get a finish then he probably only scores 60-70 points in a win. Those low scores don’t cut it in $8.6k. There are just better plays points per dollar and people are the men I’ll be targeting. Sergio is a solid fade if you are earning 20 or less lineups this weekend.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
Read more: f1radical.com
